YouTube Red Is Alive! (Hoping To Turn Green To Black)

At long last, and as of today, YouTube's long-awaited YouTube Red $9.99/month ad-free subscription service is alive! (although as of now, 10:30 am Eastern it still isn't - here is the link to get your free 30 day trial).  Build-up is over.  Reality now sets in.  Will it succeed?  Will sufficient numbers convert from free to pay to make it interesting?  Will YouTube Red break into the black and be "profitable" (in whatever way Google/YouTube defines profitability)?  And -- even more elementary -- what will YouTube Red be when it grows up?  These are the questions asked within digital circles as we speak (and as we watch).  Industry observers (doesn't that include all of us?) are awaiting early returns/data with bated breath.

As in all things Google and YouTube, skeptics abound.  That is the natural order of things.  And, last week I wrote a post titled "In Defense of YouTube (& the YouTube Red Experiment)" that laid out my response to those skeptics.  The week before, I wrote a post titled "YouTube Red - What Do Creators REALLY Think?" that laid out the blunt no-holds-barred thoughts of video creators themselves -- how they feel about the great YouTube Red experiment (and how it was rolled out to them).  That post included thoughts from my interviews/Q&A with 5 CEOs/execs from major MCNs and OTTs.  It is worth reading to fully internalize their perspectives -- since YouTube is an essential platform for most of them.

YouTube's grand new "experiment."  Let's watch.  Let's see the data.

And let's all in the video game keep dialing it in.  After all, the more the merrier, right?

Beach Goth 2015 - Scenes From My Latest Live Music Experience


Yesterday, my son Luca and brother-in-law An Nguyen experienced our first Beach Goth music festival in the OC.  Was surprisingly great and "dialed in."  Grimes stood out amongst the rest -- owning the stage (and audience) and driving a frenetic set.  Other standouts included Warpaint (of course -- my 7th time seeing them) and The Aquabats (my biggest surprise).  These are scenes from the festival.

In Defense of YouTube (& the YouTube Red Experiment)

YouTube yesterday officially unveiled YouTube Red -- its long-anticipated ad-free $9.99/month premium subscription service (it goes live on the 28th).  You all know about it - although some details are still a bit hazy (no need for me to cover them here, but check out this summary titled "17 Critical Facts About YouTube Red and YouTube Music" from Digital Music News that nicely highlights some of the core features).  You also all have followed the highly-public sturm und drang voiced by many in the video eco-system about the new service and how it was rolled out to creators.  I covered that too in my recent post "YouTube's Subscription Service - What Do Creators REALLY Think?"

YouTube Red is YouTube's next grand experiment.  And the fundamental question, of course, is whether it can succeed (i.e., achieve meaningful user conversion) (i) when it is priced the same as Netflix (and currently more on iOS where it is $12.99/month to deflect Apple's 30% bounty), (ii) when "free" video is practically ingrained in its DNA (and, as a result, our DNA), and (iii) when a significant percentage of core users are credit card starved.

Here's the thing.  YouTube was a grand experiment from the start -- and the odds were stacked against it.  I know from personal experience, because I too was raising (or trying to raise) capital for a YouTube-like UGC video service even before YouTube (a service which ultimately became Veoh) and faced the blank stares of VCs who just didn't "get" it.  Yet, YouTube was born.  And, in the process, YouTube spawned the entire digital video eco-system that has transformed our lives.  Let's not forget that.

YouTube is a behemoth, as a result.  And that makes it an easy target.  Is its 55/45 creator split fair?  Does it understand the needs of creators?  Few will ever be fully satisfied, and there is no right answer on these kinds of issues.  The organically evolve over time -- and then ultimately become "the rules of the game" (although that doesn't mean that those rules can't, nor shouldn't, continue to evolve amidst evolving realities -- including transforming market conditions).

And that's precisely what's happening here.  YouTube no longer stands alone as a behemoth in the overall world of digital video.  The playing field of giants -- like Facebook and Snapchat (and new giants like Verizon's Go90, Comcast Watchable ... as well as Netflix, Amazon and Hulu that increasingly will square off against YouTube over time) -- continues to accelerate at an astonishing rate.  And that doesn't even account for all the "Davids" out there like Vessel and the entire world of MCNs/MPNs.  All of these players are changing (and have already changed) the game via their own experiments -- launching new forms of experiences (including new original premium programming) and new business/pricing models in the process.

And so YouTube must adapt.  It must try new things.  Not all of them will succeed.  There are no guarantees here -- and YouTube Red's Netflix-ian pricing presents a challenge (although, given YouTube's mass volumes, even a very low level of free-to-pay conversion can drive significant revenues).  But, while YouTube Red's roll-out certainly could have been accomplished more elegantly based on my discussions with creators, the new service does bring new options/choice for consumers.  And that's never a bad thing.  Ad-free.  New original programming.  And its oft- overlooked YouTube Music service.

Experimentation.  Evolution.  Entrepreneurial characteristics that are difficult to knock.  I know many YouTube executives.  They are passionate about their mission.  They are committed to innovation.  They are committed to their users.

And they absolutely want their experiences to be the best.

Nothing wrong with that.

MDM October Newsletter - The Digital Health Issue

October 21, 2015

Manatt Digital Media – October Newsletter: Digital Health Update

In this newsletter, we highlight some of the ways digital technologies are transforming healthcare and the opportunities and challenges they present to individuals and businesses. We also introduce you to our team at Manatt Health Solutions, who are trusted advisors to government entities, nonprofits and private companies across the healthcare industry.
Announcement: We have recently revamped our website. Visit the newly designed Manatt Digital Media home here—manattdigitalmedia.com.

Opportunities in Connected Health and Wellness

The healthcare industry has experienced unprecedented transformation over the last few years. Regulatory changes, combined with changing demographics and the rise of connected devices, are creating a new ecosystem of data-centric, consumer-focused business models, including mobile health and wellness service apps, home diagnostics, telemedicine and continuous lifestyle monitoring. Read more

How Mobile Apps Will Empower Healthcare Consumers

By Joel Ario, Managing Director, Manatt Health Solutions | Stuart R. Butler, Senior Fellow, Brookings
Note: According to MobiHealthNews, the number of health-centric apps has quadrupled since 2010—and Frost and Sullivan predicts that the mobile health market will exceed $390 million this year. Pew research shows that almost two-thirds of Americans now own smartphones—and 62% have used them to look up health information. In a new post for Health360, the Brookings Institution blog, summarized below, Joel Ario of Manatt Health Solutions and Stuart Butler of Brookings, a nonprofit public policy think tank in Washington, D.C., examine how the explosion in smartphone usage and mobile apps is empowering healthcare consumers as they make decisions around their healthcare coverage. Click here to read the full post.
Choosing a health plan on one of the new public or private exchanges is no easy task. That's especially true for those with medical conditions who want to be very sure the plan they enroll in will provide the services they need. Read more

Client Spotlight: Five Questions With Melissa Hana, Founder and CEO of Mahmee

Mahmee, a Manatt Digital Media client, is a digital healthcare company using predictive analytics to provide personalized, on-demand support to new mothers and infants. Mahmee members can book both in-home and virtual appointments with a growing network of highly qualified postpartum care providers, including registered nurses, board certified lactation consultants, registered dietitians, certified massage therapists, sleep trainers, emotional wellness counselors, and more. Mahmee also features a text message hotline, online support groups led by experts, and the Motherboard™—a digital content experience that evolves with mom and baby through every age and stage. Read more

The Connected Patient: Using Digital Health in Care Management (Webinar)

Digital health is transforming care delivery around the world. The global digital health market is expected to reach $233.3 billion by 2020. How does the digital health revolution translate into improved outcomes for Medicaid populations? With Medicaid the single largest payer for healthcare in every state, that's a critical question. Get the answer at "The Connected Patient: Using Digital Health in Care Management." Join us for this webinar on October 26 from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. ET. Read more

Manatt Health Solutions Overview

Manatt Health Solutions is the first fully integrated legal, regulatory, advocacy and business advisory healthcare practice and has been consistently ranked as one of the nation's top firms in healthcare by Chambers USA. With decades of experience and 80 professionals dedicated exclusively to healthcare clients, Manatt Health Solutions advises clients across the healthcare industry, including state policymakers and agencies, payers and healthcare providers, foundations, associations, and product and service vendors, who seek to understand and adapt to the new imperatives of health reform and the industry's digital transformation. Read more

Infographic - The VR-AR Immersive Universe Explained

The Immersive world of VR and AR.  No longer fiction.  Now reality.  Oculus, Jaunt, Magic Leap -- just to name a few -- have taught us that.  But, so many players?  Who are they?  And, how do they "fit" in the overall immersive ecosystem.  We at Manatt Digital Media (MDM) did the work so that you don't have to.  Feel free to share it with others to help make sense of it all.

And, last week, I moderated a VR/AR "immersive" panel at the 2015 Siemer Summit in Beverly Hills that also had a hologram component.  Here is my blog post related to that panel -- and some of its core areas of agreement.

(Special thanks to research and consulting firm Digi-Capital for its market sizing data.  And special thanks to MDM senior analyst Mary Ermitanio for leading the charge here with a full team who spent countless hours to make this happen - that is appreciated.)

VR in 2016 - Several Million Headsets Sold -- Mass Market Status Reached -- My VR/AR Panel at the Siemer Summit

Yesterday was day 1 of the Siemer Summit digital media/technology conference in Beverly Hills.  We at Manatt Digital Media (MDM) are the primary sponsor for the fifth year running --and I moderated at VR/AR panel with industry experts (including senior execs from Jaunt, Rothenberg's River Accelerator/Studios, CryWorks, New Deal Studios, and VNTANA -- all of whom are pictured here after the panel, except for Ashley Crowder of VNTANA).  Great panel -- we covered much ground.  Here are some of the headlines:

(1) The panel was unanimous that several millions of premium VR headsets will be sold in 2016 (that means excluding Google Cardboard); premium headsets from Oculus, Samsung, Sony, HTC, and others.  That means that VR becomes a mass market opportunity in the very near-term -- i.e, next year.

(2) I cited research and consulting firm Digi-Capital's forecast of a total VR/AR market of $150 billion by 2020, the vast majority of which -- 80% -- is predicted, perhaps surprisingly, to be AR.  And, the panel was unanimous -- agreeing that the ultimate market potential for AR will dwarf the VR market, because AR's semi-immersive (rather than fully-immersive) nature means that AR applications are much broader in scope.


(3) BUT, interestingly, all agreed that VR is far ahead of AR in terms of obvious mass consumer and business applications right now -- and, further, while many significant VR-focused companies are widely known, major AR market participants are less so (with Magic Leap and Microsoft leading the way ... and virtually no others widely known (in fact, the panel had difficulty identifying others)).

The evening's award show was highlighted by serial entrepreneur and digital media/tech investor Richard Wolpert's inspired and rousing cover of Sir Mix-A-Lot's "Baby Got Back."  And, no, I am not kidding (here is the picture to prove it -- complete with gold chain) ... the crowd was rolling.  Nice work Richard.  Nice work!

YouTube's Second Coming (Its Subscription Service) - What Do Creators REALLY Think?


[This article originally appeared in VideoInk earlier today.]

YouTube v2.0 -- you know, the ad-free/paid subscription model?  By all indications, it's coming soon (just in time for the holiday season).  But, two fundamental questions remain: (1) will consumers care -- and pay for it -- when they have been trained for years to get all they want gratis (and when many of them are young with no credit cards)?; and (2) will video creators care -- and agree to YouTube's reported "take it or leave it" business terms -- when most of them have built their businesses on top of YouTube's ad platform and are dependent upon it?  This post addresses this second question -- the reactions of video creators faced with YouTube's coming new world order.

First, let's set the stage.  Faced with significantly increasing competition, YouTube is widely reported to soon be launching an ad-free paid subscription option to woo more of us, retain more of us, and generate more revenues from us.  To accomplish its goals, YouTube sent all video creators new controversial terms of use that asks creators: (1) to agree to make all of their videos available for ad-free viewing; and (2) to agree to YouTube's notorious 55/45 revenue split for resulting subscription revenues (that are apportioned based on the individual creator's share of overall subscription-based ad-free viewing).  Here's the rub in all of this.  Creators must agree to these new terms of use by October 22nd or, in YouTube's words, that creator's "videos will no longer be available for monetization in the United States."  In other words, if you don't agree to play by YouTube's rules in YouTube's new subscription game, then you must sit out the entire YouTube series -- you won't be allowed to make money on YouTube period.  Your ad revenues are gone.

So, with this dramatic backdrop, what do the video creators themselves think about YouTube's new subscription schema -- and the decisions and ramifications they face to be part of it (or not)?

I asked several CEOs and top execs of well-respected, well-known and leading digital-first video companies (some call some them "MCNs") this question.  I wanted their perspectives -- and promised them anonymity in order to get the most candid responses possible.  And, here they are -- real responses culled from five top execs from five different companies -- each of whom I respect and know at least fairly well.  You will notice a definite pattern and general universality in their feedback.

(1) First, practically speaking, few video creators have the real-world option to reject YouTube's new policy -- and all of these interviewed execs have signed up for it (after all, YouTube -- and resulting ad revenues -- are still a fundamental part of most video creator strategies).  In the words of one CEO, "Sure, one could say no, but then, for a digital first video company, one would be cutting off critical pieces of business building."  Another put it more bluntly.  When asked whether saying "no" is even an option, the response was "No because of the obvious" (although this CEO also added that he/she is "sure there is an idiot out there looking to teach YouTube a 'lesson'").  One other CEO was a bit more sanguine about it.  In this exec's words, "Most folks don't have any issue with this.  Some folks cannot do it because they have pre-existing restrictions.  So, some carve-outs are inevitable.  At the end of the day, this is critical for YouTube and they will ram it through (although clearly it hasn't been easy for them).  My understanding is that the most vocal 'no' vote has been amongst folks that manage the talent."

(2) YouTube's new subscription service and policy are causing significant heartburn for many creators.  "Yes, it causes me a lot of anxiety," says one CEO.  "[W]e use YouTube True View advertising in a very key, and very methodical and disciplined manner to build audience, loyalties and brands.  So, no ads is a clear burden for us."  Another CEO, however, felt that YouTube's policy change will be "net neutral" to its business, because "we control windowing of content, not them, so limited to no impact on our ability to make money off our content.  There may even be incremental income in SVOD.  Imagine that."

(3) Anxiety and indifference are exacerbated by the great unknown of what exactly "it" is and a high degree of skepticism as to its prospects for success.   In the words of one CEO, "I am not personally bullish on its prospects.  Too many competing options out there.  People know YouTube as a free place to consume videos.  SVOD road will be hard."  Another top exec from another leading company agreed, saying "We're inherently skeptical.  People are used to YouTube being free and come to it for that reason.  Changing an ingrained behavior is a very heavy lift."  One CEO was simply annoyed.  "They are intentionally being vague about it [the new subscription service]."  While another was more troubled by the "great unknown."  "No one knows what the ... service will really be, so we have no idea whether it's even a good buy for viewers -- the subscriber subs will maybe be big viewers and hurt us all."  (This CEO nonetheless pointed out that "In general, I think YouTube tries hard to work well for creators, it's their DNA to be partners after all ... [but] there's the disconnect between the business teams and the product teams, an endemic problem at YouTube ... [and] as a viewer, I'm all for the program.  I think companies offering us choice is really really consumer friendly.")

(4) Virtually all of these execs strongly knocked YouTube for how it rolled out and communicated its new terms of use to video creators.  In the words of one CEO, "It's their house.  Everyone realizes that if they want to shift the furniture around they will....  I don't think they particularly lose sleep over the creators but I may be biased.  Maybe they care about the biggest ones that everyone else wants to woo away."  But, here's the kicker.  And, this part is the widely-shared reality that is (or should be) most troubling to YouTube.  This same CEO said -- in words worth highlighting:

"Peter, the net out for us:  we don't care.  We've shifted our focus away from YouTube fairly dramatically about 10-12 months ago.  The vast majority of creators we work with today are non-YouTubers. We are focused on Facebook to build our audience and are aggressively developing our tech platform which includes both publishing and creator management.  We've also been creating content for other OTT platforms.  I have spent maybe 5% of my time thinking about YouTube in the last year.  They used to be the only game in town.  They're not anymore."

And, that CEO was not alone.  Another was even more direct, saying, "This is a ballsy move.  They act like an 800 pound gorilla, but they aren't anymore.  So many of our relationships are with advertisers, and now this is going around that.  I don't know how you can discard the ad market with such an iron fist."

Should any of this be cause for concern for YouTube?  Perhaps not with respect to the new terms of use for creators themselves, because all of these execs have signed the dotted line.  But, certainly "yes" on some of the overarching themes, including the widely-held belief by creators that they effectively had no choice or voice in the matter -- and most importantly, the emotional/philosophical independence from YouTube that is shared by many.

(You can read more on this issue in the companion guest article from yet another anonymous top exec from one of these companies that is now on my Digital Media Update blog; it is a smart, frequently angry opinion piece that reflects the passion that this issue has evoked in many video creators and touches upon all of these issues in depth and is worth reading).

YouTube's Subscription Service & Terms of Use -- One Major Creator's Opinion

This is a companion piece to my just-posted article titled "YouTube's Second Coming (Its Subscription Service) - What Do Creators Think?"  I am posting this separate largely unedited op-ed piece because I found this particular response from a senior exec at a major MCN/digital-first video company to be thought-provoking (and to communicate the depth of passion this overall issue has provoked by some video creators).  I asked permission to post this exec's thoughts largely intact, so long as I kept them anonymous.  Permission granted -- and anonymity kept.  I know that some may justifiably criticize this approach, but this opinion is real, thoughtful in the issues it raises, does not reflect lone wolf sentiments (although, to be clear, the passion is particularly deep), and is thus, I believe, worth considering in the overall debate.  Certainly, YouTube has increasingly been in the cross-hairs of video creators and the burgeoning field of formidable competitors alike.  But, for the record, I believe all sides should have an opportunity to offer their perspectives -- and I welcome YouTube's response (I know several execs there, and they are good people who are passionate about their mission).  And as several execs from digital-first video companies I asked have acknowledged, YouTube faces increasing formidable competition -- and must respond in some fashion.  I reflected several comments of "understanding" as well in my companion piece.

So, with that, here is this guest post that responds to YouTube's new terms of use for video creators (in connection with the widely reported coming of its new ad-free subscription service) and the reaction to how YouTube communicated it out to them:

"The main question is ... what is this [YouTube subscription service] going to be? YouTube is forcing people to sign this agreement or shut down their channels. They're doing this without even showing a sample of the product. This is not a random occurrence, it's par for the course in terms of how YouTube treats video producers.

YouTube's view of video producers seems to have two main thrusts: 

1. We know what's good for you so do as we say.

2. If you don't like it you can leave, there will always be other video producers ready to take your spot.

This is why every company that relies on YouTube is trying to make YouTube a smaller part of their business from every perspective including technology, access to audience and revenue. In my view, that's a terrible position to be in. Why would a company want to make every business that utilizes them less incentivized to utilize them? It's the arrogance bred from years of dominance and an arrogance that may ultimately be their undoing. 

In regards to paying subscribers ... YouTube's core audience either don't have money to pay a subscription fee (no credit card or parents won't pay for it) or are tech savvy enough to know they can instal an ad blocker and get an ad free service without paying. 

Hulu and Netflix work in part because they cater to adults and children. Every original for the most part is either kids programming or a high end drama intended for adults. There is no originals programming (at least not at the level of either kids or adults) for 13 - 22 year olds. This is YouTube's audience. 

So if YouTube's audience don't/can't pay to get ad free, then the next question is really about the content YouTube is putting exclusively behind the paywall. In some respects this could be great as they seem to want to utilize homegrown talent to drive the majority of this content. This could drive more subscriptions, but this leaves out channels/producers that don't get slugs of this money. YouTube is going to feature their 'originals' behind the pay wall and if viewers do make it to a non-original behind that paywall there's no accounting for what we'll actually get paid and no incentive for YouTube to help us keep people on our content. 

This means video producers without an originals deal from YouTube have zero incentive to push people there and much more incentive to push their audience completely off of YouTube. I'd add to this the split on subscription revenue, which is the same as ad revenue (55/45), is a joke. If we can get a fraction of our users to pay us the subscription directly, plus we get all of their data, why would we as programmers have any interest whatsoever in helping YouTube's subscription model? 

Furthermore, this thing could completely fall apart if the service [isn't compelling]. Google hasn't really dominated anywhere with a new product they haven't bought since Gmail .... Why will this new service be different? 

That being said, will subscriptions make video viewing more convenient for an audience or for video producers? In theory yes, that's the promise. Audiences don't have to watch ads and video producers will get more revenue and have a better direct connection with their fans. However, so many things have to go right for the producer for this model to work on YouTube that the chances of this theory being accurate are extremely low." 


5 Questions with Littlstar CEO Ben Nunez - Exclusive Q&A

     
      Disney Accelerator's Class of 2015 has its moment in the sun -- Demo Day -- this Wednesday at the Mouse House.  I will join as one of its Mentors.  One of the most intriguing startups in its graduating class is VR-focused Littlstar, a company that is very much in the minds of many in these early (yet justifiably heady) days of "immersive" entertainment and experiences -- an area in which our Manatt Digital Media team has immersed ourselves deeply.  Littlstar aims to be THE destination for premium immersive content -- VR and 360 -- certainly an ambitious mission, given the growing competition in that space (especially 800 pound gorilla YouTube).  But, new innovative entrants always emerge to offer fresh perspectives and approaches -- and Disney's pedigree behind Littlstar certainly doesn't hurt.  I met Littlstar's CEO Ben Nunez a few weeks back at the Disney Accelerator -- and asked him my "5 Questions" to get his perspective on the world he seeks to disrupt.  Here we go:


     (1) What is the reason your company exists (and what problem(s) are you looking to solve)?

So far, investment in Virtual Reality has gone to content creation and headsets. That’s natural. The industry first had to build cameras and production tools to create the content, and build devices to consume it. The headsets are ready, and there’s a flood of content coming. Now the industry needs distribution capabilities. Every content creator we talk to is looking for solutions and destinations to distribute immersive content. When you look at the TV industry, distribution is by far the biggest business. And distribution in VR requires a completely new line of thinking. Storytelling and the economics of content will change with VR, and new platforms will emerge. Littlstar is hands down the best place to discover, watch, and share the best in Virtual Reality and 360 video, and we saw a huge opportunity to go win market share at the perfect time.

(2) How are you different from your competitors?

Depends on whom you consider a competitor. Early industries like this, there are a few companies doing lots of things and people compare us to companies we think we’re very different from. We’re focused solely on distribution. We’re not building a camera rig, we’re not doing production nor opening a studio. Distribution is an enormous opportunity and challenge, and it requires a dedicated focus. One big thing that differentiates us is that we’re a true platform for distributing and building VR/360 experiences. We offer very simple ways of distributing content, as well as developer tools for content creators to build direct-to-consumer experiences on mobile, web, and in VR headsets.

(3) Why will you succeed (and what is your single most important ingredient for success)?

Team. Team. Team. No need to say much more than that.

(4) What makes your company unique (and what do you enjoy most outside of building your business)?

An incredible combination of the best in strategic vision, experience, execution, engineering, and straight up hustle. Our team is incredible. Repeat entrepreneurs with successful exits, VR/AR experts, math geniuses…and we have fun together. That’s what we do outside of building our business. We have fun together! We’re building some of the most important building blocks of technology for the VR industry, and will be helping to establish the fabric of how content gets distributed in this new medium.

(5) What digital media trend is most interesting to you (and what is the least)?

Virtual Reality, of course! But also the breakdown of the incumbents and the control they have wielded for a long time. These monopolies and even some of the newer platforms are feeling heat from content creators. Cord cutting is real, and cable companies and television networks are under serious pressure from content owners who want a more direct relationship with their consumer. Adding to this pressure is the nature of content consumption by millennials – short form is dominating in a society where attention is short and people simply don’t sit around their television as much as previous generations. The fragmentation of content distribution is creating opportunities for newer platforms.