Sundance Has NOT Seen This Movie Before -- Netflix, Amazon Shoot To Kill

Another Sundance is nearly in the can.  And, we have NOT seen this movie before.

Yes, digital isn't new to Sundance.  But, leading streaming services/OTTs out-bidding the "traditional" studio competition for prestige indie movies is.  With Sundance 2016, Netflix and Amazon showed that they are in it to win it.  Exhibit A -- Amazon outbid Fox Searchlight, Focus Features and other studios to snag festival favorite drama "Manchester By the Sea" -- paying $10 million for those rights.  While this may not faze us anymore in the midst of the massive media transformation that surrounds us, just sit back for a second.  That was essentially unimaginable just two years ago.  The "traditional" system is being shaken up, disrupted, up-ended, _______ (fill in the blank with your own choice word).

This year's NATPE in Miami tried to maintain a brave face amidst all the tumult, with buyers and sellers roaming the halls in the same inefficient manner they have for decades.  I was there.  Yes, many digital-focused/multi-platform panels took the stage.  And, those in the audience listened.  But, did they really?  Do they really "get" it?  Of course some do.  But, what most struck me at NATPE was how few really did!  Old habits die hard.  You  can see that ... feel that ... at NATPE.

Professor, author, screenwriter, producer (and overall Renaissance man) Neil Landau punctuated all of this at NATPE when he unveiled his new book "TV Outside the Box" and discussed some of its major themes.  Here are some choice nuggets I wrote down as I listened -- conclusions he reached via his research -- that should resonate with all of us.  They certainly do for me.  NOTE -- all of these are Neil's direct quotes.

-- "Whether you are AVOD or SVOD, if you're not making original content, then you're toast."
-- "Niche is the new mainstream."
-- "Binge viewing is here to stay.  It's like reading a page-turner."
-- "There can never be too much good content."
-- "You can't manufacture authenticity."
-- "There is not a formula anymore for creating good content."
-- "Originality!"
-- "For content to be global, it must have multiple entry points.  That is why ensemble casts work."
-- "Television linear time slots will go away within 5 years."
-- "Change [as in business models] is good if it increases connection."  (Neil was commenting that all of this disruption is a net positive because, among other things, all of this free-flowing OTT borderless content leads to the "global water cooler" and seeds empathy and connection.)

MDM January Newsletter - Top 10 Predictions for 2016

This post is from the January edition of the Manatt Digital Media newsletter.  To sign up for our monthly newsletters, access that link.

It's a new year, and that, of course, means it's pundit time. Last year's headline story in digital media was the rapid ascension and burgeoning number of over-the-top (OTT), cord-free streaming video services, led by Netflix. 2015's secondary headline was the coming storm of virtual reality (VR). Now let's look ahead. Here are Manatt Digital Media's top 10 predictions for digital media in 2016.

(1) VR will be the headline story, as what was just recently written off as fad for most in media will cross into mass-market status. Several million premium headsets (not just Google Cardboards) will be sold by major consumer electronics companies that have together invested billions of dollars to create market demand. It will feel like the early mainstreaming days of the game console market. While gamer experiences will dominate VR in 2016, live-action VR will also show promise as the language of VR storytelling develops. Jaunt, fresh off its new, massive round of $65 million from Disney and other media giants, will be one of the companies to lead the way.

(2) Not far behind, consolidation will rule the day, as traditional media companies—both domestic and international—will accelerate their appetite for digital-first M&A. These strategic bets will be driven by the now full realization that new DNA is needed to play effectively in our transformed mobile-first, social and Millennial-driven media environment. Those few remaining multichannel networks (MCNs) with scale and HBO-like "originals" strategies are in the line of sight, as are leading digital-first production companies that sell to the growing list of OTT providers that pay for exclusive programming. For creators, this heralds a new "Golden Age" of content. And for consumers, this means choice like never before. Too much? Companies that can help navigate it all will be in demand.

(3) The multiplatform-ization of media will show no signs of abating, as the "Great Unbundling" of pay-TV packages will continue and the list of YouTube challengers (such as Facebook and Snapchat) and challenging stand-alone OTT services grows. New OTTs increasingly include subscription service from both traditional media companies (such as NBCUniversal's "Seeso") and a growing list of vertically focused media companies (such as leading dance/music-focused MPN DanceOn, in which Manatt Venture Fund is invested).

(4) Live streaming (both event and individual/social) will join video on demand (VOD) as a key area of focus for media companies both young and old. Live social network YouNow has raised $15 million this year and is one to watch, while Twitter acquired Periscope for about $100 million. Will Meerkat be next in 2016?

(5) On the music side, major services' (Spotify, Pandora, Rhapsody) subscription-focused business models will continue to look to diversify. That's why they smartly made significant strides in that regard in 2015. Case in point: Pandora, which acquired Ticketfly for $450 million.

(6) eSports—already quietly massive—will be quiet no longer, as an increasing number of stadiums will overflow with teens cheering for their favorite e-Athletes (and major brands will fight to reach them). 2016 may be the year that leading e-Athletes organize to bargain collectively. And traditional sports and live-event megaplayers (AEG) may consider M&A to enter this digital sports world that is here to stay.

(7) The video game industry will continue to outpace and dwarf traditional media titles in terms of revenues due to 2016's VR and eSports rapid adoption.

(8) Wearables and digital health will expand significantly. The Apple Watch is just an early prototype for things to come. Just imagine the resulting data and diagnostic possibilities for mobile, democratized healthcare. Those will come alive in 2016.

(9) Borderless global partnerships among previously territory-constrained media and tech companies will accelerate amid these new digital realities. Expect an increasing array of major strategic moves like those seeking to challenge Netflix (much like 2015's HOOQ with Warner Bros. and SingTel in Asia).

(10) Finally, expect the unexpected. Things move too fast as content and tech continue to collide. As close as we are to the action, new entrants and innovators will undoubtedly surprise.

Musicgooroo - MUST CHECK OUT New Music Site

Long-time readers of my blog know that I'm a passionate, hard-core music fan.  Now I have an important new source for indie and innovative new music, artists and bands -- and insights that surround them.  It is called Musicgooroo (click here to check it out) -- and it just launched last night.

Apart from Musicgooroo's great content, here's the best part.  The site's creator and editor -- its music guru -- is my very own 16 year-old daughter Hunter, who has been my partner in musical crime since her earliest of days.  We have streamed music throughout our house 24/7 ever since her beginning, she has attended innumerable festivals and concerts during her young life, she already has completed a major music internship, and her thirst and taste for music are simply part of her DNA (a combination of nurture and nature, I believe).  But, it's 100% Hunter -- all of it.  The vision, the execution, the passion.  And, Hunter's musical tastes and insights are deep, sophisticated.  Forget the saying "well beyond her years."  They simply "are."  She unearths artists and bands that you will like, you should know ... but don't.

I'm so proud of her!

But, most of all, selfishly, I'm just happy to finally find a music taste-maker who speaks to me and my music sensibilities (and helps me sound smart as I plot my next concert or festival experience).

Check out Musicgooroo at musicgooroo.com -- on Instagram at @themusicgooroo -- and on Spotify at musicgooroo (to listen to the latest sounds Hunter is listening to).

eSports -- Today's New Super-"Athletes" -- Guest Post By Jordan Pritchett

[Below is the first guest post of the year on my blog -- this one is by Jordan Pritchett, a bright young analyst at Manatt Digital Media who closely covers the burgeoning eSports and live streaming spaces, among others.]

With the new year now in full swing, expectations have never been higher within the digital media ecosystem.  Great things are upon us all.  From the commercialization of VR/AR technology to the rapid and perpetual evolution of the digital-first economy, 2016 is set to be an extraordinary year in terms of its accelerating pace, disruptive potential, and overall degree of innovation.

One area in particular that has amassed significant attention to date is the evolution of eSports.  Once considered a sub culture of sorts and more a tertiary market in terms of its wide spread appeal, this industry has surged in recent years and established an emergent viability that is now on par with many of the mainstay organizations one might associate with professional sports.  The industry’s robust global following alone is enough to turn heads.  Moreover, its role in pioneering the use of live streaming as a mechanism to disseminate content whilst circumventing the traditional media gate keepers compounds the notion that this phenomenon will only continue to gain momentum as its accessibility broadens.

While most people can agree on the massive potential that eSports bring to the table, its characterization as a ‘sport’ is the subject of a much more contentious dispute, and one that seems to separate the fans from the skeptics within burgeoning industry.  Do eSports truly fall under the banner of what can be considered a ‘sport’?  And as such, can the gamers themselves really be considered athletes?  It is a valid question to be sure and one that I was not entirely certain of until fairly recently, but the short answer is “yes”.

Last week during my time at CES, I was fortunate enough to spectate ELeague’s ‘Road to Vegas Counter-Strike: Global Offensive Championship’ (pictured to the left).  It was my first in-person experience with an eSports competition and believe me when I tell you that it bore all the components of a traditional sport.  Team work, creativity, highlight reel plays, triumph, and defeat were all inherent components of this event.  Above all, it was entertaining.  Wildly.

However, I couldn’t help but notice that there was a noticeable discrepancy between myself and the more seasoned members of the audience in terms of how we processed and followed the action.  There were times when I felt completely out of loop, despite the announcer’s best efforts to keep me apprised on pertinent updates throughout.  Still, the colorful narration wasn’t sufficient in preventing key moments from going completely over my head.  This is not surprising given my limited experience with gaming.  I might have stood half a chance of keeping up with the pace if the ELeague was hosting a Tony Hawk Pro Skater or NFL Blitz tournament for N-64, but those days are long dead and gone.

Regardless of my shortcomings, this experience highlighted an important segment that the industry will need to cater to as these leagues continue their push toward the mainstream — the non-gamers.  While it is estimated that there are 134 million eSports viewers worldwide, future growth will eventually become reliant on the industry’s ability to attract new fans from beyond its core target market and indoctrinate these unfamiliar consumers into this culture.  It is my belief that simple changes — such as tweaking aspects of the presentation of the event to provide the audience with a more encompassing and holistic perspective of the action — will likely take place over time and go a long way in streamlining the audience’s ease of consumption.  Furthermore, the expected rise of eSports focused programing that features news, commentary, and analysis (the “SportsCenter” equivalent) will play an instrumental role in solidifying the general public’s awareness and comprehension.  Whether this takes place in 2016 or in the years that follow remains unclear.  However, the coming of age for the industry is already under way and I am excited to watch it evolve and grow as a form of mainstream entertainment.  In fact, it might be appropriate to say that the mainstream era of eSports is already here.  All of us — especially marketers — should take note.  Immediately.

Top 10 Digital Media Predictions For 2016

[Yesterday, TechCrunch published my most recent guest article titled "Predictions On The Future Of Digital Media" (accessible via this link).  In it, I discuss what I expect to be digital media's headline stories of 2016.  And, here is my significantly expanded and modified version of "TOP 10" predictions I make for digital media in 2016.  Thanks to my team at Manatt Digital Media for their thoughts in connection with this Top 10 list.]

It’s pundit time -- this time, digital media style.  Several days back, TechCrunch (in a different article) posted my lookback at predictions for 2015 -- a scorecard of my predictions same time last year.  Last year’s headline story in digital media was the rapid ascension and burgeoning number of over-the-top (OTT) cord-free streaming video services led by Netflix.  2015’s secondary headline was the coming storm of virtual reality (VR).  

Now, let’s look ahead.  Here are my Top 10 predictions for digital media in 2016.

(1)         VR will be the headline story, as what was just recently written off as fad for most in media will cross into mass market status.  Several millions of premium headsets (not just Google Cardboards) will be sold by major consumer electronics companies that have together invested billions of dollars to create market demand.  It will feel like the early mainstreaming days of the game console market.  While gamer experiences will dominate VR in 2016, live action VR will also show promise as the language of VR story-telling develops.  Jaunt, fresh off its new massive round of $65 million from Disney and other media giants, will be one to lead the way.

(2)          Not far behind, consolidation will rule the day, as traditional media companies – both domestic and international – will accelerate their appetite for digital-first M&A.  These strategic bets will be driven by the now full realization that new DNA is needed to play effectively in our transformed mobile-first, social and millennial-driven media environment.  Those few remaining multi-channel networks (MCNs) with scale and HBO-like “originals” strategies are in the line of sight, as are leading digital-first production companies that sell to the growing list of OTT providers (such as Verizon’s new go90 service) that pay up big for exclusive programming.  For creators, this heralds a new “Golden Age” of content.  And for consumers, this means choice like never before.  Too much?  Companies that can help navigate it all will be in demand.

(3)          The multi-platform-ization of media will show no signs of abating, as the “Great Unbundling” of pay TV packages will continue and the list of YouTube challengers (like Facebook and Snapchat) and challenging stand-alone OTT services grows.  New OTTs increasingly include subscription service from both traditional media companies (like NBCUniversal’s “Seeso”) and a growing list of vertically-focused media companies (like The Chernin Group/AT&T’s Otter Media joint venture and signature Fullscreen service).

(4)          Live streaming (both event and individual/social) will join video on demand (VOD) as a key area of focus for media companies both young and old.  Live social network YouNow recently raised $15 million this year and is one to watch, while Twitter acquired Periscope for about $100 million.  Will Meerkat be next in 2016?   

(5)          On the music side, major services’ (Spotify, Pandora, Rhapsody) subscription-focused business models will continue to be challenged.  That’s why they smartly sought to diversify their revenue streams in 2015.  Case in point Pandora – which acquired Ticketfly for $450 million.  Will it be acquired in 2016? 

(6)          eSports – already quietly massive – will be quiet no longer, as an increasing number of stadiums will overflow with teens cheering for their favorite e-Athletes (and major brands fight to reach them).  2016 may be the year that leading e-Athletes organize to bargain collectively.  And, traditional sports and live event mega-players (AEG, Live Nation) may consider M&A to enter this digital sports world that is here to stay.

(7)          The video game industry will continue to out-pace and dwarf traditional media titles in terms of revenues due to 2016’s VR and eSports rapid adoption.

(8)          Wearables and digital health will expand significantly.  The Apple Watch is just an early prototype for things to come.  And, just imagine the resulting data and diagnostic possibilities for mobile, democratized healthcare.  Those will come alive in 2016.   

(9)          Borderless global partnerships amongst previously territory-constrained media and tech companies will accelerate amidst these new digital realities.  Expect an increasing array of major strategic moves like those seeking to challenge Netflix (much like 2015’s HOOQ with Warner Bros., Sony and SingTel in Asia).

(10)      Finally, expect the unexpected.  Things move too fast as content and tech continue to collide.  As close as we are to the action, new entrants and innovators will undoubtedly surprise.

HTC Vive VR - My Interview With Director Product Marketing

Yesterday at CES, I demo'd the HTC Vive VR headset/experience for the second time.  As before a couple months back, impressive.  Here is my interview with Ryan Hoopingarner, Vive Director of Product Marketing -- I ask the tough questions (price points, etc.), you decide whether he answers them.  Look forward to seeing it on the market in April.  In my view, right now, it's the one to beat.

Coachella Is Back! Shoots, Scores! My "Must Sees"

All ye music faithful, as you know, Coachella surprised last night -- announcing its line-up very early this year.  The verdict?  Coachella is back to form!  After last year's mediocre and extremely disappointing line-up (my most ho-hum in years), this year's line-up is diversely thrilling.  Think this is my 8th in a row -- am going Weekend 1.  Here are my picks -- day-by-day (I have highlighted in bold my "must sees" for each day):

FRIDAY
Ellie Goulding
Jack U
M83
The Kills
Foals
Of Monsters & Men
HEALTH

SATURDAY
Guns N' Roses
Grimes
Courtney Barnett
The Arcs
Silversun Pickups
BADBADNOTGOOD

SUNDAY
Sia
Major Lazer
FLUME
Beach House
Rancid
Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros
Tei Shi

Digital Media 2015 & 2016 - My Guest Article in Variety

Happy New Year digital media faithful!  In advance of the madness of next week's CES, Variety today published my guest article titled "Digital Media Trends That Will Define 2016."  In it, I discuss THE big digital media story of 2015 (the continuing and accelerating climb of Netflix and other OTT services) -- and my anticipated headline digital media stories for 2016 (virtual reality and significant industry consolidation).  Check it out and let me know whether you agree, disagree -- and what your headline stories were for 2015 -- and what you anticipate the headlines stories will be for digital media in 2016.