My 1600th Post - Why Vinyl Matters ...

I always mark my centenary posts with a reflection of some sort.  This is no exception.  Here's my 1600th.  It's about vinyl.  Yes, vinyl.  And it's not simply a nostalgia piece.  It's about where I'm at. Right here.  Right now.
Here's the thing.  Although I am a "digital guy," I not only appreciate -- I crave (as we all do, more than we think) -- the offline physical world.  That's what this post is about.  A reminder of how important that physical reality is in this increasingly digital world where experiences and purported meaning become more and more virtual and, hence, remote.
Here's a reminder.  "Real" experiences matter most.  Touching.  Feeling.  Sharing.  Communing.  
At last year's Grammy's, I attended a gathering of music industry execs at a swank Beverly Hills hotel. But this was no typical event. It had some real meaning. Real appreciation for the power of music (something about which I absolutely believe ... because I feel it every day ... my therapy ... my chill).
After speaking with some of the guests for a few minutes at this event, a featured guest -- a young woman sitting behind a typewriter -- asked me to sit down.  She was an author.  A poet of sorts. And, her tool of the trade was a non-electronic Smith-Corona.  Remember those?  Old-fashioned typewriters that no one uses anymore.  As she typed, I asked her what spurred her, as an artist, to type with a manual Smith-Corona in our digital world.  She answered that it was precisely that -- the search for the physical ... the tangible -- in our increasingly virtual digital world.  And she told me that she was not alone.  That typewriters are making a comeback.  And, here's the thing.  This was no simple nostalgia.  This was not me talking.  She was young.  No more than 25.
Which brings me to music -- and to vinyl.  We all know that vinyl too is  coming back in a big way.  And the millennials are leading the way.
What's going on here?
It's simply this.  It is the search for something tangible.  Something that can be touched.  Something that has some kind of feeling of permanence -- a permanence that gives it increased meaning.  Digital doesn't have that.  You can't go to a digital store and flip through albums and discover great new music that way.  And, "that way" is very very cool.  And, fundamentally different.  You actually touch that vinyl.  You make the "connection" -- and it connects with you.  This is something that digital natives have missed -- and want to bring back.  Amazon -- the king of everything "e" -- recognizes this.  That's why they are bringing back physical bookstores in which we can all simply hang out, sift through stacks of actual books, and browse to our hearts delight.
We see this counter-reaction to digital in our interactions as well.  Music festivals have sprouted everywhere at an accelerating pace.  Millennials save up all year and spend millions (billions) to make annual pilgrimages to Coachella, Bonnaroo, Outside Lands, Life Is Good, and hundreds of other festivals all over the planet.  Why?  It goes beyond the music (although the music itself is tribal).  It goes to our core desire as human beings to have a sense of physical community in our increasingly disconnected (connected?) virtual digital online social media world where we have hundreds and sometimes thousands of friends ... but, how many of those are real ... or matter?
That's why vinyl represents a movement.  It is a search for something physical and a bit more permanent.  For gatherings of the tribes.  For meaning.  For experiences. 
And, after all, isn't life ultimately about real experiences and meaning ... and not just accumulating virtual "stuff" (or physical stuff for that matter)?

Magic Leap(s) To $1.4 Billion - AR Hype?

Magic Leap, the enigmatic augmented reality (AR) company tucked away about as far as possible from Silicon Valley (in Florida), just scored an astounding new round of $793.5 million (at a post-money valuation of $4.5 billion).  That brings its overall total financing haul to nearly $1.4 billion.  Insane, right?  A sign of a coming tech melt-down apocalypse?  Reason overtaken by AR hype?

Well, not so fast.

First, AR as an industry is expected to be globally massive -- research firm Digi-Capital pegs it at being $120 billion by 2020.  And, despite the tech and media world's current fixation with virtual reality (VR) -- which is here and now -- further-out AR is expected to dwarf the overall VR market (which Digi-Capital pegs at a comparatively modest $30 billion).  That means that AR ultimately will follow the 80/20 rule -- grabbing 80% of the overall "immersive" market.  Why?  Because AR's partially (rather than fully) immersive reality gives it much broader consumer and enterprise application.  Think of it as the AR market being analogous to the ubiquitous mobile market, whereas the VR market is more analogous to the more limited game platform market.  My firm, Manatt Digital Media, previously laid all of this out (and other important factoids) in a compelling VR/AR infographic that lays out the overall market opportunity and key players in it (and is worth checking out here via this link).

Second, with this "mother of all rounds," Magic Leap does much more than leap over competing AR players -- it catapults them.  How can other start-ups compete against that?  Mega-rounds of capital don't guarantee success, but it certainly doesn't hurt.  That kind of money empowers Magic Leap to grab the land in this global AR/immersive land-grab.  It also affords long-term experimentation and patience to "get it right."

Third, just think of the pedigree and diversity of Magic Leap's overall syndicate.  It includes Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (which led this new round), Google, Qualcomm, Warner Brothers, and J.P. Morgan (just to name a few).  Those are respectively behemoths in (i) international commerce and social media (among its many "talents"), (ii) search and video (well, all of you know who Google is), (iii) mobile, (iv) content and media, and (v) finance.  Now that's a well-rounded round of players that, together, are committed to freezing out any competition and drive overall success across all consumer and enterprise channels with their collective reach and influence.

Again, none of this guarantees product excellent, market acceptance, and overall success at mega-scale.

But, it certainly doesn't hurt.

So, hype or cold hard reason?

Yes, there may be some froth here.  But, with an endless string of potential suitors all fighting for some love in this hyper-competitive round and amidst this opportunity, this valuation was cold hard reality.

In other words, the invisible (augmented?) hand in action.

Yahoo Says "No Mas!" Officially Puts Itself On The Block

Well, ladies and gentlemen, Yahoo! is now officially on the block -- announcing yesterday that it is seeking "strategic alternatives" -- a move it signaled just a couple months back.  (Concurrently, Yahoo! also announced that it is "simplifying" its business -- translation, laying off 15% of its employees (essentially to ready itself for a sale)).
(Image to the left courtesy of Gizmodo.)


As I wrote not so long ago in an earlier post which is worth reconsidering here given the news, Yahoo!'s fate is a wake-up call for all of us in the digital media business (and presents an opportunity for the ultimate buyer, so long as it moves aggressively).

What happened here?

Well, Yahoo!'s media strategy certainly didn't help.  It failed, plain and simple.  I wrote a detailed post about this about one year ago (titled "Yahoo Kills Its YouTube Killer - So What's Still Alive?") when Yahoo! threw up the white flag to its long-rumored, but not-to-be, YouTube "killer."

As I wrote then, that move "demonstrat[ed] Yahoo!'s continued indecision and overall flailing (failing?) in the OTT video content space.  And, this certainly is not an opportune time for flailing -- for an unfocused/scattered/disrupted (you choose the word) video strategy (or complete lack thereof?) when the video focus/strategy/execution of others (behemoths like Facebook and Snapchat and others like Vessel) are ever more sharp, precise, resourced, abundantly clear ... and, with some, massively successful (by all accounts, Facebook is killing it)."

Sad indeed.  After all, Yahoo! had every opportunity to massively succeed -- it controlled uniquely compelling resources and ingredients (that I discussed long ago in a blog post from 2013) that gave Yahoo! the potential to drive real success as an alternative to YouTube and in the burgeoning OTT world.  But months (now years) ticked by and, alas, little came (except a revolving door of new execs and departing frustrated execs).  Yes, there was significant video activity, but no recognizable strategy to it all (nor any real reported success in those efforts).  As I reported back then, many senior execs with whom I had spoken confirmed overall frustration time and time again.  In the words of one respected digital exec -- and former Yahoo! senior exec on the content side who left in frustration -- "Yahoo!'s video strategy had been overtaken by confusing multiple layers of decision-making, internal conflict, and what some even called chaos."  Nor did it help that Yahoo! failed in its attempt to buy a controlling stake in Dailymotion, Europe's YouTube.  Not its fault (French regulators killed that deal), but still failure to launch.

Meanwhile, as Yahoo! flailed, the video world radically changed.  What once was, in essence, a YouTube-only video world for creators is now, of course, a world of multiple competing video platforms with massive competing players like Facebook, Snapchat, Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, Sling TV (and the burgeoning number of stand-alone OTTs like NBC's Seeso).  So, as I wrote last April, and faced with those realities, "Yahoo! is running out of time amidst the current great OTT video land grab of 2015."

But, even less than one year ago, I still felt that Yahoo!'s media strategy was potentially salvage-able if it "ha[d] a major Dailymotion-like acquisition trick up its sleeve that will soon come to light and finally catapult it into the OTT video big leagues (where it absolutely could belong if it had the will and focus)."

Sadly, that simply was not to be (although it could have been).

And now here we are ...

Comcast/NBCUniversal M-GO(es) For It! Fandango Becomes An OTT


Comcast/NBCUniversal.  Who knew?

As we closed out 2014 (about one year ago), that U.S. media giant stood where virtually all other global media giants stood when it came to digital -- i.e., essentially nowhere.

What a difference a year makes (make that more like 6 months).

Since August 2015, check out Comcast/NBCUniversal's digital mega-moves:

-- $200M investment in Vox Media
-- $200M investment in BuzzFeed
-- Comcast launches mobile and millennial-first, short-form driven "Watchable" service
-- NBCUniversal launches longer-form stand-alone OTT "Seeso" service
-- and, oh yes, don't forget NBCUniversal's continued joint venture partnership in Netflix competitor Hulu which, in 2015, turned on the cash spigot in a massive way to secure exclusives to Seinfeld and others -- and also to double down on originals.

And now this.  Just a couple days back, Comcast/NBCUniversal quietly entered the full-on OTT platform space all alone (and without any JV partners) when its Fandango service bought long-neglected M-GO out from under its owners DreamWorks Animation and Technicolor (financial terms weren't disclosed).

Bravo Comcast/NBCUniversal.  Bravo! (which is an NBCUniversal network by the way).  Comcast/NBCUniversal is now well ahead of the curve versus other major U.S.-focused media giants -- certainly the one to watch.  Time for others to take a look at what they are doing and, if nothing else, use that for inspiration to do something on their own ...  In most cases, finally do something, because the clocks on change are only going to spring forward faster.

Sundance Has NOT Seen This Movie Before -- Netflix, Amazon Shoot To Kill

Another Sundance is nearly in the can.  And, we have NOT seen this movie before.

Yes, digital isn't new to Sundance.  But, leading streaming services/OTTs out-bidding the "traditional" studio competition for prestige indie movies is.  With Sundance 2016, Netflix and Amazon showed that they are in it to win it.  Exhibit A -- Amazon outbid Fox Searchlight, Focus Features and other studios to snag festival favorite drama "Manchester By the Sea" -- paying $10 million for those rights.  While this may not faze us anymore in the midst of the massive media transformation that surrounds us, just sit back for a second.  That was essentially unimaginable just two years ago.  The "traditional" system is being shaken up, disrupted, up-ended, _______ (fill in the blank with your own choice word).

This year's NATPE in Miami tried to maintain a brave face amidst all the tumult, with buyers and sellers roaming the halls in the same inefficient manner they have for decades.  I was there.  Yes, many digital-focused/multi-platform panels took the stage.  And, those in the audience listened.  But, did they really?  Do they really "get" it?  Of course some do.  But, what most struck me at NATPE was how few really did!  Old habits die hard.  You  can see that ... feel that ... at NATPE.

Professor, author, screenwriter, producer (and overall Renaissance man) Neil Landau punctuated all of this at NATPE when he unveiled his new book "TV Outside the Box" and discussed some of its major themes.  Here are some choice nuggets I wrote down as I listened -- conclusions he reached via his research -- that should resonate with all of us.  They certainly do for me.  NOTE -- all of these are Neil's direct quotes.

-- "Whether you are AVOD or SVOD, if you're not making original content, then you're toast."
-- "Niche is the new mainstream."
-- "Binge viewing is here to stay.  It's like reading a page-turner."
-- "There can never be too much good content."
-- "You can't manufacture authenticity."
-- "There is not a formula anymore for creating good content."
-- "Originality!"
-- "For content to be global, it must have multiple entry points.  That is why ensemble casts work."
-- "Television linear time slots will go away within 5 years."
-- "Change [as in business models] is good if it increases connection."  (Neil was commenting that all of this disruption is a net positive because, among other things, all of this free-flowing OTT borderless content leads to the "global water cooler" and seeds empathy and connection.)

MDM January Newsletter - Top 10 Predictions for 2016

This post is from the January edition of the Manatt Digital Media newsletter.  To sign up for our monthly newsletters, access that link.


It's a new year, and that, of course, means it's pundit time. Last year's headline story in digital media was the rapid ascension and burgeoning number of over-the-top (OTT), cord-free streaming video services, led by Netflix. 2015's secondary headline was the coming storm of virtual reality (VR). Now let's look ahead. Here are Manatt Digital Media's top 10 predictions for digital media in 2016.
(1) VR will be the headline story, as what was just recently written off as fad for most in media will cross into mass-market status. Several million premium headsets (not just Google Cardboards) will be sold by major consumer electronics companies that have together invested billions of dollars to create market demand. It will feel like the early mainstreaming days of the game console market. While gamer experiences will dominate VR in 2016, live-action VR will also show promise as the language of VR storytelling develops. Jaunt, fresh off its new, massive round of $65 million from Disney and other media giants, will be one of the companies to lead the way.
(2) Not far behind, consolidation will rule the day, as traditional media companies—both domestic and international—will accelerate their appetite for digital-first M&A. These strategic bets will be driven by the now full realization that new DNA is needed to play effectively in our transformed mobile-first, social and Millennial-driven media environment. Those few remaining multichannel networks (MCNs) with scale and HBO-like "originals" strategies are in the line of sight, as are leading digital-first production companies that sell to the growing list of OTT providers that pay for exclusive programming. For creators, this heralds a new "Golden Age" of content. And for consumers, this means choice like never before. Too much? Companies that can help navigate it all will be in demand.
(3) The multiplatform-ization of media will show no signs of abating, as the "Great Unbundling" of pay-TV packages will continue and the list of YouTube challengers (such as Facebook and Snapchat) and challenging stand-alone OTT services grows. New OTTs increasingly include subscription service from both traditional media companies (such as NBCUniversal's "Seeso") and a growing list of vertically focused media companies (such as leading dance/music-focused MPN DanceOn, in which Manatt Venture Fund is invested).
(4) Live streaming (both event and individual/social) will join video on demand (VOD) as a key area of focus for media companies both young and old. Live social network YouNow has raised $15 million this year and is one to watch, while Twitter acquired Periscope for about $100 million. Will Meerkat be next in 2016?
(5) On the music side, major services' (Spotify, Pandora, Rhapsody) subscription-focused business models will continue to look to diversify. That's why they smartly made significant strides in that regard in 2015. Case in point: Pandora, which acquired Ticketfly for $450 million.
(6) eSports—already quietly massive—will be quiet no longer, as an increasing number of stadiums will overflow with teens cheering for their favorite e-Athletes (and major brands will fight to reach them). 2016 may be the year that leading e-Athletes organize to bargain collectively. And traditional sports and live-event megaplayers (AEG) may consider M&A to enter this digital sports world that is here to stay.
(7) The video game industry will continue to outpace and dwarf traditional media titles in terms of revenues due to 2016's VR and eSports rapid adoption.
(8) Wearables and digital health will expand significantly. The Apple Watch is just an early prototype for things to come. Just imagine the resulting data and diagnostic possibilities for mobile, democratized healthcare. Those will come alive in 2016.
(9) Borderless global partnerships among previously territory-constrained media and tech companies will accelerate amid these new digital realities. Expect an increasing array of major strategic moves like those seeking to challenge Netflix (much like 2015's HOOQ with Warner Bros. and SingTel in Asia).
(10) Finally, expect the unexpected. Things move too fast as content and tech continue to collide. As close as we are to the action, new entrants and innovators will undoubtedly surprise.

Musicgooroo - MUST CHECK OUT New Music Site

Long-time readers of my blog know that I'm a passionate, hard-core music fan.  Now I have an important new source for indie and innovative new music, artists and bands -- and insights that surround them.  It is called Musicgooroo (click here to check it out) -- and it just launched last night.

Apart from Musicgooroo's great content, here's the best part.  The site's creator and editor -- its music guru -- is my very own 16 year-old daughter Hunter, who has been my partner in musical crime since her earliest of days.  We have streamed music throughout our house 24/7 ever since her beginning, she has attended innumerable festivals and concerts during her young life, she already has completed a major music internship, and her thirst and taste for music are simply part of her DNA (a combination of nurture and nature, I believe).  But, it's 100% Hunter -- all of it.  The vision, the execution, the passion.  And, Hunter's musical tastes and insights are deep, sophisticated.  Forget the saying "well beyond her years."  They simply "are."  She unearths artists and bands that you will like, you should know ... but don't.

I'm so proud of her!

But, most of all, selfishly, I'm just happy to finally find a music taste-maker who speaks to me and my music sensibilities (and helps me sound smart as I plot my next concert or festival experience).

Check out Musicgooroo at musicgooroo.com -- on Instagram at @themusicgooroo -- and on Spotify at musicgooroo (to listen to the latest sounds Hunter is listening to).

eSports -- Today's New Super-"Athletes" -- Guest Post By Jordan Pritchett

[Below is the first guest post of the year on my blog -- this one is by Jordan Pritchett, a bright young analyst at Manatt Digital Media who closely covers the burgeoning eSports and live streaming spaces, among others.]
With the new year now in full swing, expectations have never been higher within the digital media ecosystem.  Great things are upon us all.  From the commercialization of VR/AR technology to the rapid and perpetual evolution of the digital-first economy, 2016 is set to be an extraordinary year in terms of its accelerating pace, disruptive potential, and overall degree of innovation.
One area in particular that has amassed significant attention to date is the evolution of eSports.  Once considered a sub culture of sorts and more a tertiary market in terms of its wide spread appeal, this industry has surged in recent years and established an emergent viability that is now on par with many of the mainstay organizations one might associate with professional sports.  The industry’s robust global following alone is enough to turn heads.  Moreover, its role in pioneering the use of live streaming as a mechanism to disseminate content whilst circumventing the traditional media gate keepers compounds the notion that this phenomenon will only continue to gain momentum as its accessibility broadens.
While most people can agree on the massive potential that eSports bring to the table, its characterization as a ‘sport’ is the subject of a much more contentious dispute, and one that seems to separate the fans from the skeptics within burgeoning industry.  Do eSports truly fall under the banner of what can be considered a ‘sport’?  And as such, can the gamers themselves really be considered athletes?  It is a valid question to be sure and one that I was not entirely certain of until fairly recently, but the short answer is “yes”.
Last week during my time at CES, I was fortunate enough to spectate ELeague’s ‘Road to Vegas Counter-Strike: Global Offensive Championship’ (pictured to the left).  It was my first in-person experience with an eSports competition and believe me when I tell you that it bore all the components of a traditional sport.  Team work, creativity, highlight reel plays, triumph, and defeat were all inherent components of this event.  Above all, it was entertaining.  Wildly.
However, I couldn’t help but notice that there was a noticeable discrepancy between myself and the more seasoned members of the audience in terms of how we processed and followed the action.  There were times when I felt completely out of loop, despite the announcer’s best efforts to keep me apprised on pertinent updates throughout.  Still, the colorful narration wasn’t sufficient in preventing key moments from going completely over my head.  This is not surprising given my limited experience with gaming.  I might have stood half a chance of keeping up with the pace if the ELeague was hosting a Tony Hawk Pro Skater or NFL Blitz tournament for N-64, but those days are long dead and gone.
Regardless of my shortcomings, this experience highlighted an important segment that the industry will need to cater to as these leagues continue their push toward the mainstream — the non-gamers.  While it is estimated that there are 134 million eSports viewers worldwide, future growth will eventually become reliant on the industry’s ability to attract new fans from beyond its core target market and indoctrinate these unfamiliar consumers into this culture.  It is my belief that simple changes — such as tweaking aspects of the presentation of the event to provide the audience with a more encompassing and holistic perspective of the action — will likely take place over time and go a long way in streamlining the audience’s ease of consumption.  Furthermore, the expected rise of eSports focused programing that features news, commentary, and analysis (the “SportsCenter” equivalent) will play an instrumental role in solidifying the general public’s awareness and comprehension.  Whether this takes place in 2016 or in the years that follow remains unclear.  However, the coming of age for the industry is already under way and I am excited to watch it evolve and grow as a form of mainstream entertainment.  In fact, it might be appropriate to say that the mainstream era of eSports is already here.  All of us — especially marketers — should take note.  Immediately.

Top 10 Digital Media Predictions For 2016

[Yesterday, TechCrunch published my most recent guest article titled "Predictions On The Future Of Digital Media" (accessible via this link).  In it, I discuss what I expect to be digital media's headline stories of 2016.  And, here is my significantly expanded and modified version of "TOP 10" predictions I make for digital media in 2016.  Thanks to my team at Manatt Digital Media for their thoughts in connection with this Top 10 list.]

It’s pundit time -- this time, digital media style.  Several days back, TechCrunch (in a different article) posted my lookback at predictions for 2015 -- a scorecard of my predictions same time last year.  Last year’s headline story in digital media was the rapid ascension and burgeoning number of over-the-top (OTT) cord-free streaming video services led by Netflix.  2015’s secondary headline was the coming storm of virtual reality (VR).  

Now, let’s look ahead.  Here are my Top 10 predictions for digital media in 2016.

(1)         VR will be the headline story, as what was just recently written off as fad for most in media will cross into mass market status.  Several millions of premium headsets (not just Google Cardboards) will be sold by major consumer electronics companies that have together invested billions of dollars to create market demand.  It will feel like the early mainstreaming days of the game console market.  While gamer experiences will dominate VR in 2016, live action VR will also show promise as the language of VR story-telling develops.  Jaunt, fresh off its new massive round of $65 million from Disney and other media giants, will be one to lead the way.

(2)          Not far behind, consolidation will rule the day, as traditional media companies – both domestic and international – will accelerate their appetite for digital-first M&A.  These strategic bets will be driven by the now full realization that new DNA is needed to play effectively in our transformed mobile-first, social and millennial-driven media environment.  Those few remaining multi-channel networks (MCNs) with scale and HBO-like “originals” strategies are in the line of sight, as are leading digital-first production companies that sell to the growing list of OTT providers (such as Verizon’s new go90 service) that pay up big for exclusive programming.  For creators, this heralds a new “Golden Age” of content.  And for consumers, this means choice like never before.  Too much?  Companies that can help navigate it all will be in demand.

(3)          The multi-platform-ization of media will show no signs of abating, as the “Great Unbundling” of pay TV packages will continue and the list of YouTube challengers (like Facebook and Snapchat) and challenging stand-alone OTT services grows.  New OTTs increasingly include subscription service from both traditional media companies (like NBCUniversal’s “Seeso”) and a growing list of vertically-focused media companies (like The Chernin Group/AT&T’s Otter Media joint venture and signature Fullscreen service).

(4)          Live streaming (both event and individual/social) will join video on demand (VOD) as a key area of focus for media companies both young and old.  Live social network YouNow recently raised $15 million this year and is one to watch, while Twitter acquired Periscope for about $100 million.  Will Meerkat be next in 2016?   

(5)          On the music side, major services’ (Spotify, Pandora, Rhapsody) subscription-focused business models will continue to be challenged.  That’s why they smartly sought to diversify their revenue streams in 2015.  Case in point Pandora – which acquired Ticketfly for $450 million.  Will it be acquired in 2016? 

(6)          eSports – already quietly massive – will be quiet no longer, as an increasing number of stadiums will overflow with teens cheering for their favorite e-Athletes (and major brands fight to reach them).  2016 may be the year that leading e-Athletes organize to bargain collectively.  And, traditional sports and live event mega-players (AEG, Live Nation) may consider M&A to enter this digital sports world that is here to stay.

(7)          The video game industry will continue to out-pace and dwarf traditional media titles in terms of revenues due to 2016’s VR and eSports rapid adoption.

(8)          Wearables and digital health will expand significantly.  The Apple Watch is just an early prototype for things to come.  And, just imagine the resulting data and diagnostic possibilities for mobile, democratized healthcare.  Those will come alive in 2016.   

(9)          Borderless global partnerships amongst previously territory-constrained media and tech companies will accelerate amidst these new digital realities.  Expect an increasing array of major strategic moves like those seeking to challenge Netflix (much like 2015’s HOOQ with Warner Bros., Sony and SingTel in Asia).

(10)      Finally, expect the unexpected.  Things move too fast as content and tech continue to collide.  As close as we are to the action, new entrants and innovators will undoubtedly surprise.

HTC Vive VR - My Interview With Director Product Marketing

Yesterday at CES, I demo'd the HTC Vive VR headset/experience for the second time.  As before a couple months back, impressive.  Here is my interview with Ryan Hoopingarner, Vive Director of Product Marketing -- I ask the tough questions (price points, etc.), you decide whether he answers them.  Look forward to seeing it on the market in April.  In my view, right now, it's the one to beat.

Coachella Is Back! Shoots, Scores! My "Must Sees"

All ye music faithful, as you know, Coachella surprised last night -- announcing its line-up very early this year.  The verdict?  Coachella is back to form!  After last year's mediocre and extremely disappointing line-up (my most ho-hum in years), this year's line-up is diversely thrilling.  Think this is my 8th in a row -- am going Weekend 1.  Here are my picks -- day-by-day (I have highlighted in bold my "must sees" for each day):

FRIDAY
Ellie Goulding
Jack U
M83
The Kills
Foals
Of Monsters & Men
HEALTH

SATURDAY
Guns N' Roses
Grimes
Courtney Barnett
The Arcs
Silversun Pickups
BADBADNOTGOOD

SUNDAY
Sia
Major Lazer
FLUME
Beach House
Rancid
Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros
Tei Shi

Digital Media 2015 & 2016 - My Guest Article in Variety

Happy New Year digital media faithful!  In advance of the madness of next week's CES, Variety today published my guest article titled "Digital Media Trends That Will Define 2016."  In it, I discuss THE big digital media story of 2015 (the continuing and accelerating climb of Netflix and other OTT services) -- and my anticipated headline digital media stories for 2016 (virtual reality and significant industry consolidation).  Check it out and let me know whether you agree, disagree -- and what your headline stories were for 2015 -- and what you anticipate the headlines stories will be for digital media in 2016.

VideoInk Interview - My 2015 Reflections/2016 Predictions

(VideoInk originally published this interview on December 21st -- thanks to Todd Longwell of VideoInk to permit me to republish it fully -- here is the link to the original post).

To close out 2015, VideoInk is calling on some of the top execs in the online video business to give us their take on the most significant developments in the industry in the past year, as well as where it might be going in 2016..
First up is Peter Csathy. As the CEO of business consulting and legal services firm Manatt Digital Media, Csathy has been an agent of change and passionate proponent of digital transformation and opportunity. He’s also been keen a keen observer of the rapid changes in the streaming space, offering up regular industry analysis in his Digital Media Update blog.

What was the most important trend in the online video industry in 2015?
The push of “traditional” media companies to place big bets in digital-first media. A seemingly endless array of standalone subscription-based OTT services (including NBCUniversal’s upcoming Seeso) followed HBO Now’s path and launched or announced this past year. NBCU made other significant moves – investing $200 million each in BuzzFeed and Vox Media – and parent company Comcast launched its mobile-first video service Watchable.
What single deal, launch or failure in 2015 was the biggest game-changer for the industry?
Facebook’s focus on video changed the online video game this year, in one stroke transforming the “YouTube Economy” into a “Multi-Platform Video Economy.” Now, for the first time, YouTube has real competition and creators have choice. On the flip-side, Yahoo!’s failure to launch its YouTube “killer” service earlier this year and it’s recent exit from premium video represent a cautionary tale about the need for focus and speed.  Yahoo!’s assets, together with focused media aspirations, could be impactful.
What surprised you the most in terms of hits or misses?
VR was the biggest surprise hit this year in terms of sheer audacity and investment. While I expected VR to be a significant story in 2015, the speed at which that market is growing and in the minds of business is remarkable. 2016 will see the early mainstreaming of VR with millions of premium headsets sold. The biggest “miss” – if you can call it that – is that the MCN/MPN M&A market slowed this year. Things will heat up again in 2016, and we will see several M&A exits for those remaining MPNs with scale.
What’s the most common mistake you saw this year in the biz, whether they were made by studios or individuals?
To underestimate the speed at which everything is moving – and the need for focused action in this brave new digital world order.  This is no time to churn endless spreadsheets.  The world has changed.  You see it all around you.  For millennials in particular (the bodies marketers need to reach), media is mobile and social-first.  So, a central focus on mobile and social are necessary … yesterday.  No time to overthink it. It’s time to act.
Is there a sector of the streaming industry that you feel is chronically undervalued or ignored?Yes, those companies and technologies that can help consumers find precisely what they want and navigate intelligently through the endless and expanding flood of content.
What do you think will be the big story for the streaming space in 2016?
If you consider VR as part of your coverage, then the early mainstreaming of VR will be a massive story in 2016.  Separately, on the streaming/digital media side, significant M&A and consolidation will grab headlines throughout the year. Be prepared to be unprepared for the news to come. Everyone is scheming as we speak.
Virtual reality/360-degree video – fad or future? Why?
VR is no fad.  Virtual reality is actual reality here and now – a transformative technology that facilitates entirely new experiences, most of which we have yet to even imagine. The sheer billions already invested to date – and will continue to be invested at an accelerating pace in 2016 – will make it so. If they build it (VR), we will come. And we will be amazed.
Mobile-first distribution – overhyped or undervalued? Why?
Mobile is the first screen for millennials, plain and simple. Look around you. That’s where the kids are. And that means that all media and marketing companies need to be there, right here, right now. And not timidly, either.

Digital Media 2015 -- My Recap For TechCrunch

(A modified version of this post originally appeared in TechCrunch yesterday under the title "Scorecard: 2015 Digital Media Predictions.")

It's that time of year again.  No, not the holidays!  It's nostalgia time -- taking a look at this past year and taking stock of our lives (both business and personal).  This post focuses on the former -- strictly business.  Here I look back at the 8 predictions I made in TechCrunch nearly one year ago in an article not-so-creatively titled "The Future Of Digital Media 2015."  This post compares those predictions to the reality that is digital media in 2015 (understanding that we have a few more weeks to go).

I.  PREDICTION (1) -- The mobile-driven, premium, short-form video economy “grows up,” and traditional media companies finally take notice on a mass scale ... International also becomes a major new battleground for these borderless video opportunities. 

REALITY CHECK (1) -- This one can't be denied.  2015 was the year when the media world's new digital realities hit home on a mass scale.  Too many data points to mention -- but, on the domestic front, I'll focus on one -- Comcast/NBCUniversal.  This multi-tentacled media behemoth had barely made a digital move in 2014 -- but, in the second half of this year, it was practically on fire.  First, it invested $200 million into Vox Media.  Then, in less than one week, another cool $200 million in BuzzFeed.  Then, it launched its mobile first short-form video platform "Watchable."  And, in case that wasn't enough, it separately announced its longer-form stand-alone subscription OTT companion to Watchable -- i.e., "SeeSo."  SeeSo launches January 7th -- just in time for CES.  Now THAT's making a digital statement (which Comcast/NBCUniversal finally -- and smartly -- did).  Bravo! (a network NBCUniversal owns, by the way).


On the international front, check again.  International media giants -- particularly in Europe -- moved even more swiftly than their Yank compatriots.  Cases in point include Scandinavian media company MTG buying leading UK MCN/MPN Zoomin.TV for a deal valued at nearly $100 million; and German media giant ProSieben's acquisition of leading U.S. MCN/MPN Collective Digital Studio -- which it combined with its existing Euro-based Studio71 MCN to create a truly global digital, mobile-first and millennial-driven media company (valued at approximately $240 million, including ProSieben's cash infusion).




II.  PREDICTION (2) -- Major consumer brands follow suit and act in earnest.  Massive marketing dollars shift from traditional media to more measurable digital platforms in the form of branded content (not just ads), cannibalizing the former for the first time.  

REALITY CHECK (2) -- Check, again.  Ad dollars shifted from "traditional" to digital/mobile in real, eye-opening ways, the magnitude of which is still not fully appreciated.  Even ESPN -- THE traditional media world's cash cow -- was not immune.  ESPN is the proverbial canary in the coal-mine.  If it had to shed 4% of its work-force in light of new digital marketing, OTT, and consumer behavioral realities (which it recently did), then you know (or better know) that the times are a' changin.'  Even Viacom -- what most pundits consider to be amongst the slowest major U.S. media company to act upon new digital realities -- made noises about placing major bets amidst these new realities.  Specifically, it is reported to be developing its own Nielsen audience measurement "killer" -- a new digital measuring platform it calls "Project Gemini."  But, many ask, why build slowly when you can buy or rent right now?  Speed is at a premium in this brave new digital world.  My vote is "buy!"  Deep tech expertise is not a natural element of traditional media DNA.




III.  PREDICTION (3) -- YouTube comes under siege by new competing video platforms like Facebook and Vessel. 

REALITY CHECK (3) -- Check again -- with a major exclamation point this time. YouTube no longer stands alone at mass scale in this digital video world.  I have written about this several times over the course of this past year.  "The force" is with Facebook already in a very big way (the first of my "Star Wars" references) -- it is a behemoth alternative platform that increasingly matters to video creators (just ask major MCNs/MPNs like Whistle Sports and Mitu Networks).  Same with Snapchat, which is now a bonafide media company and not just your kids' communication platform.  Then, there is an ever-increasing cast of thousands, including still-very-stealth-like Vessel (would love to see some metrics/conversion rates posted by Vessel, by the way).  


YouTube's competition is real, very real for the first time -- and that's precisely why it recently reacted to these competing forces (and resulting expanded consumer choice) by launching its YouTube Red ad-free paid subscription service.  Even the mother of them all smartly concluded that it can't stand still (even if it had to break a few creator eggs in the process).  I applauded YouTube at the time for acting, because no media company of any size should be doing anything but.  Your actions may not always work, but it's experimentation time.  You simply must be in the game -- and, as they say, you cannot be afraid to fail.  Failure is an option in this context, because inaction simply is not.



IV.  PREDICTION (4) -- Traditional pay TV packages likewise come under fire in the “Great Unbundling” that began in 2014.  

REALITY CHECK (4) -- Check again -- let me count the ways!  Where to begin?  Virtually every media company has now (again, smartly) either launched or has announced that it is launching its own stand-alone paid subscription OTT service (NBCUniversal's "SeeSo," CBS's "All Access," ABC's "WatchABC," Univision's just-announced "Univision Now," "HBO NOW," Showtime, Nickelodeon, Comcast "Watchable," Dish's "Sling TV" ... the list goes on and on) -- not to mention all the others out there focused on particular vertical/niche programming (how about the WWE's chair-smashing pseudo-wrestling focused streaming service?  It is killing it).  There's gold in those vertical hills populated by a particularly rabid and underserved customer base.  But, in this era of the "Great Unbundling" (which again directly impacts even media stalwart ESPN), how many of these paid subscription services can the market take?  The market "noise" is great -- so there will be blood.  But, in the immortal words of Yoda (who is sure to be oft quoted this holiday season), "try you must!"




V.  PREDICTION (5) -- Media and tech companies will literally converge. 

REALITY CHECK (5) -- "Convergence" can mean many things in this context.  But, candidly, I was thinking primarily of M&A when I wrote this one (although strategically partnering counts -- and we do see media companies increasingly venturing into tech -- case in point Warner Bros' and Sony's hoped-for "Netflix Killer" OTT joint venture with SingTel in Asia named "HOOQ").  No mega-acquisitions have happened yet.  Neither Google, Amazon, nor Apple (nor Alibaba!, which just bought Chinese YouTube Youku Tudou for $4.8 billion) has bought any of the major U.S. media companies.  But all easily have the cash to do it.  Will we see that happen in 2016?  Stay tuned for my 2016 predictions near year-end.  



VI.  PREDICTION (6) -- On the music side, businesses move away from stand-alone services.

REALITY CHECK (6) -- Why?  Because as massive as both Spotify and Pandora are (and they are), they are not even remotely profitable based on subscription revenues alone.  That's why Pandora just recently (and smartly) announced two major strategic moves to diversify its singularly challenged business model.  First, acquiring Ticketmaster's mini-me -- Ticketfly -- for $450 million in order to add a major new revenue stream.  And now, buying soon-to-be-defunct competing service Rdio for $75 million in order to add on-demand functionality and compete head-on with Spotify and others.  That last move does little to change its pre-Ticketfly one-dimensional business model.  But, it is a major reaction to its long market slide over the past two years.  Spotify also hears the music -- and just partnered with Songkick to add its new "Concerts" feature that gives it a hoped-for major new revenue stream.  I applaud those efforts to diversify, because all stand-alone services must (as I have written several times previously).  But will these moves be enough?  I still don't rule out M&A (as in being eaten by even bigger fish -- in this regard, the "usual suspects" in Prediction 5 above apply here too).  This could happen in 2016.  Pandora is becoming cheaper by the day.  


Speaking of digital music-focused M&A, Tidal has been in the news of late about secret potential M&A discussions with Samsung.  But, isn't being controlled by a behemoth (rather than being independent and controlling your own destiny) everything against what Tidal is all about?  I could see Jay Z wanting to partner with Samsung, but not selling.  And, speaking of Samsung, don't forget that it already features its own "Milk Music" service that is powered by Slacker, the streaming service that quietly has built a significant customer base (you may be listening to it in your car right now) but is generally overlooked because it is more humbly tucked away here where I live in soft-spoken San Diego.  If anything, Samsung should just buy Slacker.  But, will it?  Doubtful.  Samsung just recently shuttered its "Milk Video" service and is exiting, not entering, the content space (except in the area of VR where it has placed a huge bet with Samsung Gear VR) (more on VR below).  Of course, Samsung's overall content strategy could change again -- since the company has embodied "change" on the content side over the past couple years).


In any event, Pandora and Spotify -- the two indie mega-music services -- satisfy this Prediction #6 in my book.  Let me know if you agree.




VII.  PREDICTION (7) -- Gamers see real action too.

REALITY CHECK (7) -- This prediction focused on game developers increasingly transforming themselves into multi-platform media story-tellers a la Rovio.  Certainly we are seeing accelerating moves and investments to that end -- and I conferred with games expert and Manatt Digital Media colleague Patrick Sweeney to get his thoughts.  He pointed out that for game developers, it's not just about original IP for their stories.  He gave me several examples based on existing properties -- including "Laura Craft Go" (a mobile strategy game based on Tomb Raider), "Fallout Shelter" (an interesting resource gathering twist on a classic game console title), and Pac-Man 256 (a new mobile spin on one of the most classic game titles).  Based on all this action -- and Patrick Sweeney's outside objective confirmation -- I'll mark this prediction off as being a "yes."




VIII.  PREDICTION (8)  -- Gamers take to wearables ... we see an Oculus under every hard core gamer's tree.

REALITY CHECK (8) -- I massively undersold this one.  Prediction #8 was all about virtual reality (VR) and how it stands to radically transform the gamer experience.  But, 2015 represents so much more than "just games" in the fast-transforming immersive world of VR and AR.  This is the year where massive bets were made (significantly more than I anticipated) to accelerate mass VR adoption in not only games, but in live "experiences" and story-telling in general (not to mention other remarkable use cases I touched upon in a recent blog post where I interviewed VR/AR thought leader Mike Rothenberg).  (NOTE:  My team at Manatt Digital Media recently published a highly informative VR/AR Infographic -- accessible via this link -- that lays out the overall VR/AR eco-system (and the players within it); think you may find it to be extremely useful).


No, we will not see an Oculus under every hard core gamer's tree this Xmas.  I was a bit premature on that one.  But not by much.  Those premium VR headsets from Oculus (as well as the growing list of others including behemoths Samsung, HTC, Sony) are coming in Conehead-inspired mass quantities early 2016 (I particularly like what I see ... er, "experience" ... with the HTC Vive (which I review in this blog post after demo-ing it last week at the Slush conference in Europe)).  Much like the analogous early days of game consoles, we will see millions of those premium headsets (not just Google Cardboards) sold in 2016.  That means mass adoption and mainstreaming of VR much earlier than most expect.

You can take that early 2016 prediction to the bank!  More coming on that front soon ....