2014 proved to be a transformational year for content-driven digital media and investment (a new “golden age” of content I predicted for TechCrunch at the beginning of last year/2014). For the first time, that investment – much of it SoCal-based -- finally took its rightful place in the sun even in the eyes of ever-skeptical NorCal venture capitalists. It was easy to see why, given mega–deals like Disney Studios buying leading multi-channel network (MCN) Maker Studios for up to $1 billion, Facebook buying virtual-reality company Oculus Rift for $2 billion, Microsoft uploading Minecraft maker Mojang for $2.5 billion, Apple buying Dr. Dre’s Beats for nearly $3 billion, and Amazon snatching up live gamer site Twitch for $1 billion. 5 deals – nearly $10 billion.
So, what do these deals portend for 2015? Certainly, accelerating digital media activity and focus – meaning billions of dollars of new bets placed by VCs, strategic investors and acquirers on content-driven opportunities. Here are my Top 10 digital media predictions for 2015:
(1) The mobile-driven premium short-form video YouTube economy “grows up,” and traditional media companies finally take notice on a mass scale. Shell-shocked studio executives internalize that digital-first platforms are where they must be to reach smartphone-obsessed millennials. MCN acquisitions will quicken as more studios jump into the M&A game rather than try to figure out this new content platform themselves. Some leading MCNs ripe for acquisition include foodie-focused Tastemade, dance-focused DanceOn, Latino-focused Mitu, sports-focused Whistle Sports, and Collective Digital Studio. (Note – Manatt Venture Fund is an investor in DanceOn and Whistle Sports is a client). International also becomes a major new battleground for these borderless video opportunities (European media company RTL Group’s $150-$200 million acquisition of U.S.-based fashion-focused MCN StyleHaul is a recent indicator of more to come).
(2) Major consumer brands follow suit and act in earnest. Massive marketing dollars shift from traditional media to more measurable digital platforms in the form of branded content (not just ads), cannibalizing the former for the first time. Major investments are placed on ad-tech companies to maximize and measure those spends. We see a number of significant ad-tech exits like Yahoo!’s recent acquisition of BrightRoll for $640 million. Several brands go further and invest big to become digital-first lifestyle media companies themselves a la Red Bull, developing and aggregating content. GoPro, Pepsi and Marriott have proudly announced such ambitions.
(3) Seeing all this activity, Silicon Valley investors increasingly make pilgrimages down South to the epicenter of media content – LA. After all, even Andreessen Horowitz vouched for content via its $50 million investment BuzzFeed.
(4) YouTube is increasingly under siege by new competing video platforms like Facebook and former Hulu chief Jason Kilar’s Vessel. These “off YouTube” platforms lure content creators away with promises of more compelling care, feeding and economics (including the tantalizing prospect of real subscription revenues).
(5) Traditional pay TV packages likewise increasingly are under fire in the “Great Unbundling” that began in 2014. What was unthinkable just one year ago (even 6 months ago!) became reality as HBO, CBS, Starz and others announced stand-alone over-the-top (OTT) services. A parade of others follow suit in 2015 (which is not all bad for cable companies that benefit from the thirst for larger pipes).
(6) Traditional media companies facing these tectonic shifts in long-established business models – and major tech companies (Apple, Google, Amazon, Samsung) for which content is increasingly critical to fuel their own – take M&A seriously and one pulls the trigger as media and tech converges … literally.
(7) On the music side, massive moves are made away from business model-challenged stand-alone services (Spotify and Pandora both still operate at a loss). Like Apple buying Beats (which was never about the economics of Beats Music), numerous potential behemoth buyers exist.
(8) Gamers see real action too, as app developers increasingly focus on story-telling and compelling characters to build multi-platform media companies a la Rovio with Angry Birds. Rather than take traditional media properties and “gamify” them, these companies flip the model with an Apps-first approach. Finnish-based Silvermile and Seriously are two companies with Rovio roots to take … well … seriously. VR also enters the ring with gamers at mass in 2015.
(9) Which leads to wearables, where we see an Oculus under every hard core gamer’s tree next year, alongside their parents’ new digital health/fitness watch.
(10) All of this leads to the big one – a concept I floated 1.5 years ago. Apple buys Tesla and installs Elon Musk as CEO. Now THAT would be a headline for 2015 … and for the ages! Here is my extended discussion just on this one.