Dez Bryant's Catch That Was(n't) -- Blame Coach Jason Garrett First!

Today is NFL Championship Sunday.  You and I all will be holed up in our living rooms with Cheeto-filled hands glued to our big screens.  And, no doubt, as we watch the NFC game where the Seahawks inevitably defeat the Packers (only because Aaron Rodgers is gimped out), we will continue to debate last week's incredible Dez Bryant "catch" from Tony Romo that got the Pack into the Championship in the first place (here is that video again).  It was "the catch that wasn't," of course.  And, we all know the Ref got it wrong.  The ruling on the field stands unless convincing proof otherwise -- and there was no such proof.  We all know the "catch" was too close to call.  So, it should have stood.  Hence the debate and passion behind it.  Social media lit up with vitriol that we all read about (voila, there's my digital media nexus for this post!).

But, here's the REAL question -- and one I haven't seen discussed anywhere.  Remember, it was late in the 4th quarter (4:37 left in the game) -- the Cowboys were behind by more than a field goal (down 26-21) -- and the Cowboys faced 4th and 2 (from the Packers' 32 yard line).  In other words, it was survival time.  This offensive series undoubtedly would be their last chance to win the game.

So, what play does Cowboys' coach Jason Garrett dial up?  A 27 yard pass play from Romo to Dez Bryant!

WHAT KIND OF CALL IS THAT?  WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THAT PLAY WORKING and the Cowboys surviving?  And, why go for it all with 4:30 minutes left in the game?  Even if "the catch that wasn't" were not reversed (which should have been the case), why give the best quarterback in football (Rodgers) the ball back with so much time left?

Here are your answers.  TERRIBLE call.  TERRIBLE coaching.  Probability for that play working, 25% at best (I would argue lower).  Props to both Romo and Bryant for an incredible pass and catch -- under extreme duress -- to at least approach that probability.

Yet, I have seen few if any place responsibility squarely on Garrett.  All the Cowboys had to do was throw a 2-3 yard "doink" pass across the middle -- a high probability pass (I would argue 75% or more) that is hard to defend.  Then, the Cowboys would have a new set of downs -- near the Packers' Red Zone -- and with plenty of time to win the game and significantly run down the clock.

Would the Cowboys have won the game in that scenario?  We'll never know, of course.

But, Cowboys' coach Jason Garrett (whose contract was just extended ... really?????) placed them squarely in a position to lose.  And, lose they did ....